While the rise in the Democratic turnout for the Virginia gubernatorial election was a surprise, the rise in the red county turnout was not.
Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report tweeted:
To be clear, Charlottesville is not representative of all blue areas. For example, Falls Church (Biden +64) was at 102% at 102% of its ’17 total.
But as expected, Rs sees a huge enthusiasm surge towards ’17. Whether that’s enough for Youngkin, we’ll see. #VAGOV
– Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) 2 November 2021
An increase in red province’s turnout is not a shock. Virginia Republicans have lost on a regular basis over the past decade. They are hungry for a victory, and they have a chance to win something that could be out of their grasp for the next decade after the new census number placed the vast majority of the state in blue northern Virginia.
The Virginia election is unlikely to be an easy victory for Democrats or Republicans. It could be a very long election night, like Democrats and Republicans turn out to vote.
The big unanswered question is, will the boom in the red provinces be enough to offset the Democratic advantage in the number of voters?
Glenn Youngkin may find himself in a Trump 2020 situation where he maximizes the Republican vote but still loses, or if the Democratic turnout is a little lower, the boom could drive him to a victory.
Either way, it could be a long election night in Virginia, as the nation watches.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason holds a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, specializing in social reform movements.
Awards and professional membership
Member of the Association of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association